A life expectancy report is not a prediction of when you will die — it is a statistical mortality curve for a group of people with your documented characteristics, and the single number on the cover page is only the midpoint of that curve. Understanding that one sentence changes how the entire document reads, and it explains why two competent firms can produce very different numbers for the same person without either being wrong.
These reports drive settlement pricing more than any other document. A buyer builds a cash-flow model in which the purchase price, plus projected premiums, must be recovered from the death benefit. The mortality curve determines when those cash flows land. Shift the curve by two years and the price moves materially.
This page decodes the terminology — mortality multiplier, median versus mean, actual-to-expected, mortality table basis — and explains what you can and cannot do about a report you think is wrong. Pine Lake Life Solutions provides education and a free policy review; nothing here is medical, legal, or tax advice.
In This Article
- Who Writes These Reports and Why It Matters
- The Mortality Multiplier Is the Core Number
- Median vs. Mean: The Distinction That Trips Everyone
- What the Underwriter Actually Read
- How the Report Turns Into an Offer
- What You Can Do About a Report You Think Is Wrong
- Every Alternative Requires No Report at All
- Frequently Asked Questions
Who Writes These Reports and Why It Matters
Life expectancy estimates in the settlement market come from a small number of specialist underwriting firms rather than from the buyer. Names commonly encountered in the market include 21st Services, ITM TwentyFirst, Fasano Associates, AVS Underwriting, and Predictive Resources; the roster and corporate ownership change over time, so confirm which firms are being used in your transaction, as of 2026.
Independence is the point. Buyers generally will not price off a report commissioned by the seller alone, and sellers should be skeptical of pricing based on a single report commissioned by the buyer alone. Most institutional transactions use two independent reports. Ask which firms were used, when the reports were dated, and whether the buyer blended them or used the shorter estimate.
The Mortality Multiplier Is the Core Number
The underwriting firm starts from a base mortality table for the general insured population — the Valuation Basic Table published by the Society of Actuaries, with the 2015 VBT being widely used in this market as of 2026 — and then applies a multiplier reflecting how much higher the individual’s mortality is than the table’s baseline.
A multiplier of 100% means mortality equal to the baseline for someone of that age, sex, and smoking status. A multiplier of 250% means mortality two and a half times the baseline. Impairments raise the multiplier; favorable factors lower it. The multiplier, applied across the full table, generates a survival curve, and the life expectancy figure is read off that curve.
This is why the multiplier is more informative than the headline number of months. Two people can have the same life expectancy in months at different ages with very different multipliers, and the shape of the curve — not just its midpoint — determines the value of a policy to a buyer.
Median vs. Mean: The Distinction That Trips Everyone
Reports often show more than one life expectancy figure, and they are not interchangeable. The median life expectancy is the point at which half the modeled cohort is projected to have died and half to still be living. The mean is the average survival time across the cohort. Because mortality curves have a long right tail, the mean typically exceeds the median.
Buyers may model from either, and using the wrong one when comparing offers produces confusion. When comparing two reports, confirm you are comparing median to median. Also check the percentile table many reports include, showing the months at which 25%, 50%, and 75% of the cohort is projected to have died — that table communicates the uncertainty far better than any single number does.
| Report Term | What It Means | Why It Matters to You |
|---|---|---|
| Mortality multiplier | Percentage of baseline table mortality | The core impairment measure; 100% equals baseline |
| Base table (e.g. 2015 VBT) | Underlying actuarial mortality table | Different bases are not directly comparable |
| Median life expectancy | Month when half the cohort has died | The figure most often quoted; compare like to like |
| Mean life expectancy | Average survival across the cohort | Usually longer than the median |
| Percentile table | Months at 25th, 50th, 75th percentile | Shows the uncertainty behind one number |
| Debits and credits | Adjustments for each condition | Where factual errors show up |
| Records reviewed | Providers and date range | Missing records mean an incomplete estimate |
What the Underwriter Actually Read
Most reports include a summary of the medical file: diagnoses, dates, medications, hospitalizations, functional status, and the specific debits and credits applied. This section deserves the most careful reading, because factual errors here propagate straight into the estimate.
Common errors worth checking: a condition listed as active that has resolved; a medication listed that was discontinued; a smoking status that is out of date; a missing recent hospitalization or specialist consultation; the wrong stage or grade recorded for a cancer; or an entire specialist’s records absent from the file because a records request went unanswered. The report will usually list which providers’ records were reviewed and the date range covered — verify that list against your actual care.
Errors of omission are the most consequential. If your cardiologist’s records never arrived, the underwriter priced a file without your cardiac history. Read what medical records a settlement requires to see what should have been collected.
How the Report Turns Into an Offer
The buyer combines the mortality curve with the policy’s projected premium stream — taken from the in-force illustration — and a required rate of return. Longer life expectancy means more years of premiums and a later payoff, so the price falls. Higher premiums do the same. A policy with a low, level guaranteed premium and a short life expectancy prices best.
Small changes matter more than most sellers expect. Because premiums compound and discounting is exponential, a difference of eighteen to twenty-four months in life expectancy can move an offer substantially. That sensitivity is exactly why a second report is worth having and why an incomplete medical file is expensive. For context on the resulting ranges, the U.S. Government Accountability Office study of the market (GAO-10-775) found sellers typically received roughly 10% to 35% of face value, several times what surrendering the same policies would have paid. See how buyers price a policy.
What You Can Do About a Report You Think Is Wrong
You have more recourse than most people realize, though none of it is a right to a particular number.
First, ask for a copy of the report. Practice varies and some firms restrict distribution, but ask directly and ask why if refused. Second, if the medical summary contains factual errors, supply corrected records and request a re-underwrite; firms do revise reports when material information was missing. Third, ask for a second independent report from a different firm, which is standard practice anyway. Fourth, ask whether the buyer used the average of two reports or the shorter one, since that choice alone changes the price.
What you cannot do is negotiate the mortality assumption itself. The report is an actuarial opinion, not a term of the deal. If two well-supported reports both show a long life expectancy, the honest conclusion may be that a settlement is not the right transaction right now. Our page on what to do when two reports disagree covers the mechanics.
Every Alternative Requires No Report at All
It is worth remembering how much of the alternative landscape skips this document entirely. Keeping the policy requires nothing. Surrendering pays cash surrender value with no underwriting. Reduced paid-up insurance converts a permanent policy to a smaller, fully paid death benefit with no health review. A policy loan requires no underwriting. A 1035 exchange under Internal Revenue Code section 1035 may require underwriting for the new contract, which can be harder than settlement underwriting. An accelerated death benefit or chronic illness rider requires certification from your own physician to your own carrier, a much narrower process.
A settlement is the right answer when the coverage is genuinely no longer needed, the policy is roughly $100,000 or larger, and the offer meaningfully exceeds what surrender or a rider would deliver. It is the wrong answer when a beneficiary still depends on the death benefit and premiums are affordable — no report changes that.
To find out whether a policy is even a candidate, send the policy cover page for a free, no-obligation review, or call (305) 209-7183. This page is educational information only and is not medical, legal, or tax advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is a life expectancy report a prediction of when I will die?
No. It is a statistical mortality curve for a modeled group of people sharing your documented characteristics, and the headline figure is the midpoint of that curve. Individual outcomes vary widely on either side of it, which is why the percentile table is more informative than the single number.
What is a mortality multiplier?
It expresses how much higher your modeled mortality is than a baseline table for someone of your age, sex, and smoking status. A multiplier of 100% equals baseline, and 250% means two and a half times baseline. It is often more informative than the months figure alone.
Why do two reports on the same person differ?
Because firms use different base tables, different clinical adjustment factors, and sometimes different medical files. Differences of a year or more are common and do not mean either firm made an error. Confirm which base table and which measure, median or mean, each report used.
Can I get a copy of my report?
Ask directly. Practice varies by firm and by transaction, and some restrict distribution, but the request is reasonable and a refusal deserves an explanation. At minimum you should be told which firms were used, the report dates, and whether the buyer blended the estimates.
What if the medical summary contains mistakes?
Supply the corrected records and request a re-underwrite. Firms do revise reports when material information was missing or misstated, and omissions such as an entire specialist’s records failing to arrive are the most consequential errors. Verify the list of providers reviewed against your actual care.
How much does life expectancy change the offer?
Substantially. Because premiums accumulate and discounting is exponential, a difference of eighteen to twenty-four months can move a price meaningfully. That sensitivity is why a second independent report and a complete medical file are both worth pursuing.
Do the alternatives require a life expectancy report?
No. Keeping the policy, surrendering it, electing reduced paid-up coverage, and taking a policy loan all involve no life expectancy underwriting. A rider claim requires certification from your own physician to your own carrier, which is a much narrower disclosure than a settlement.
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Related Reading
- What Is A Life Expectancy Report
- What Is Life Expectancy Underwriting
- Two Le Reports Differ
- How Life Settlement Buyers Price A Policy
- Medical Records Release Settlement
- What Is The Vbt Mortality Table
- What Affects A Life Settlement Offer
- Improved Health Lower Offer
Pine Lake Life Solutions does not purchase life insurance policies and does not provide legal, tax, or investment advice. Information provided is for educational purposes only. Eligibility for any option, including life settlements, is not guaranteed and depends on individual circumstances, policy terms, underwriting, and market conditions. Consult independent legal, tax, or financial professionals before making decisions regarding a life insurance policy.